Saturday, January 23, 2010

What will the Apple Tablet's interface look like?

The article below was written by Jesus Diaz (who calls the iPhone a JesusPhone and the rumoured tablet a JesusTablet...). It speculates about the user interface for the expected Apple Tablet (or iPad?). It is quite long, but an exceptionally well written description of the considerations of how to make a device that just works for everyone (like the iPhone).
I was amazed at my 2-year old's ability to navigate my iPhone, take pictures, get to applications she wanted to get to, and change my wallpaper, well before she could even speak. In the article below there's a video of a 1-year old working on an iPhone. There goes my aspirations for YouTube stardom...

The hype around the tablet is amazing. And I want one. 

The Apple Tablet Interface Must Be Like This

Some people want the Apple Tablet to run Mac OS X's user interface. Others think its UI will be something exotic. Both camps are wrong: The iPhone started a UI revolution, and the tablet is just step two. Here's why.

If you are talking hardware, you can speculate about many different features. But when it comes to the fabled Apple Tablet, there are basically three user interface camps at war. On one side there are the people who think that a traditional GUI—one built on windows, folders and the old desktop metaphor—is the only way to go for a tablet. You know, like with the Microsoft Windows-based tablets, and the new crop of touchscreen laptops.

In another camp, there are the ones who are dreaming about magic 3D interfaces and other experimental stuff, thinking that Apple would come up with a wondrous new interface that nobody can imagine now, one that will bring universal love, world peace and pancakes for everyone—even while Apple and thousands of experts have explored every UI option imaginable for decades.

And then there's the third camp, in which I have pitched my tent, who says that the interface will just be an evolution of an existing user interface, one without folders and windows, but with applications that take over the entire screen. A "modal" user interface that has been proven in the market battlefield, and that has brought a new form of computing to every normal, non-computer-expert consumer.

Yes, people, I'm afraid that the tablet will just run a sightly modified version of the iPhone OS user interface. And you should be quite happy about it, as it's the culmination of a brilliant idea proposed by a slightly nutty visionary genius, who died in 2005 without ever seeing the rise of the JesusPhone.

This guy's name was Jef Raskin.

The incredible morphing computer

Raskin was the human interface expert who lead the Macintosh project until Steve Jobs—the only guy whose gigantic ego rivaled Raskin's—kicked him out. During his time at Apple, Raskin worked on a user interface idea called the "information appliance," a concept that was later bastardized by the Larry Ellisons and Ciscos of this world.

In Raskin's head, an information appliance would be a computing device with one single purpose—like a toaster makes toast, and a microwave oven heats up food. This gadget would be so easy to use that anyone would be able to grab it, and start playing with it right away, without any training whatsoever. It would have the right number of buttons, in the right position, with the right software. In fact, an information appliance—which was always networked—would be so easy to use that it would become invisible to the user, just part of his or her daily life.

Sound familiar? Not yet? Well, now consider this. Later in his life, Raskin realized that, while his idea was good, people couldn't carry around one perfectly designed information appliance for every single task they can think of. Most people were already carrying a phone, a camera, a music player, a GPS and a computer. They weren't going to carry any more gadgets with them.

He saw touch interfaces, however, and realized that maybe, if the buttons and information display were all in the software, he could create a morphing information appliance. Something that could do every single task imaginable perfectly, changing mode according to your objectives. Want to make a call? The whole screen would change to a phone, and buttons will appear to dial or select a contact. Want a music player or a GPS or a guitar tuner or a drawing pad or a camera or a calendar or a sound recorder or whatever task you can come up with? No problem: Just redraw the perfect interface on the screen, specially tailored for any of those tasks. So easy that people would instantly get it.

Now that sounds familiar. It's exactly what the iPhone and other similar devices do. And like Raskin predicted, everyone gets it, which is why Apple's gadget has experienced such a raging success. That's why thousands of applications—which perform very specialized tasks—get downloaded daily.

The impending death of the desktop computer

Back in the '80s, however, this wasn't possible. The computing power wasn't there, and touch technology as we know it didn't even exist.

During those years, Raskin wanted the information appliance concept to be the basis of the Mac but, as we know, the Macintosh evolved into a multiple purpose computer. It was a smart move, the only possible one. It would be able to perform different tasks, and the result was a lot simpler than the command-line based Apple II or IBM PC. It used the desktop metaphor, a desk with folders to organize your documents. That was a level of abstraction that was easier to understand than typing "dir" or "cd" or "cls."

However, the desktop metaphor still required training. It further democratized computing, but despite its ease of use, many people then and today still find computers difficult to use. In fact, now they are even harder to use than before, requiring a longer learning curve because the desktop metaphor user interface is now more complex (and abstract) than ever before. People "in the know" don't appreciate the difficulty of managing Mac OS X or Windows, but watching some of my friends deal with their computers make it painfully obvious: Most people are still baffled with many of the conventions that some of us take for granted. Far from decreasing over time, the obstacles to learning the desktop metaphor user interface have increased.

What's worse, the ramping-up in storage capability and functionality has made the desktop metaphor a blunder more than an advantage: How could we manage the thousands of files that populate our digital lives using folders? Looking at my own folder organization, we can barely, if at all. Apple and Microsoft have tried to tackle this problem with database-driven software like iPhoto or iTunes. Instead of managing thousands of files "by hand," that kind of software turns the computer into an "information appliance," giving an specialized interface to organize your photos or music.

That's still imperfect, however, and—while easier than the navigate-through-a-zillion-folders alternative—we still have to live with conventions that are hard to understand for most people.

The failure of the Windows tablet

As desktop computing evolved and got more convoluted, other things were happening. The Newton came up, drawing from Raskin's information appliance concept. It had a conservative morphing interface, it was touch sensitive, but it ended being the first Personal Digital Assistant and died, killed by His Steveness.

Newton—and later the Palm series—also ran specialized applications, and could be considered the proto-iPhone or the proto-Tablet. But it failed to catch up thanks to a bad start, a monochrome screen, the lack of always-connected capabilities, and its speed. It was too early and the technology wasn't there yet.

When the technology arrived, someone else had a similar idea: Bill Gates thought the world would run on tablets one day, and he wanted them to run Microsoft software. The form may have been right, but the software concept was flawed from the start: He tried to adapt the desktop metaphor to the tablet format.

Instead of creating a completely new interface, closer to Raskin's ideas, Gates adapted Windows to the new format, adding some things here and there, like handwriting recognition, drawing and some gestures—which were pioneered by the Newton itself. That was basically it. The computer was just the same as any other laptop, except that people would be able to control it with a stylus or a single finger.

Microsoft Windows tablets were a failure, and they became a niche device for doctors and nurses. The concept never took off at the consumer level because people didn't see any advantage on using their good old desktop in a tablet format which even was more expensive than regular laptops.

The rise of the iPhone

So why would Apple create a tablet, anyway? The answer is in the iPhone.

While Bill Gates' idea of a tablet was a market failure, it achieved one significant success: It demonstrated that transferring a desktop user interface to a tablet format was a horrible idea, destined to fail. That's why Steve Jobs was never interested. Something very different was needed, and that came in the form of a phone.

The iPhone is the information appliance that Raskin imagined at the end of his life: A morphing machine that could do any task using any specialized interface. Every time you launch an app, the machine transforms into a new device, showing a graphical representation of its interface. There are specialized buttons for taking pictures, and gestures to navigate through them. Want to change a song? Just click the "next" button. There are keys to press phone numbers, and software keyboards to type short messages, chat, email or tweet. The iPhone could take all these personalities, and be successful in all of them.

When it came out, people instantly got this concept. Clicking icons transformed their new gadget into a dozen different gadgets. Then, when the app store appeared, their device was able to morph into an unlimited number of devices, each serving one task.

In this new computing world there were no files or folders, either. Everything was database-driven. The information was there, in the device, or out there, floating in the cloud. You could access it all through all these virtual gadgets, at all times, because the iPhone is always connected.

I bet that Jobs and others at Apple saw the effect this had on the consumer market, and instantly thought: "Hey, this thing changes everything. It is like the new Mac after the Apple II." A new computing paradigm for normal consumers, from Wilson's Mac-and-PC-phobic step-mom to my most computer-illiterate friends. One that could be adopted massively if priced right. A new kind of computer that, like the iPhone, could make all the things that consumers—not professionals, or office people—do with a regular computers a lot easier.

This was the next step after the punching card, the command line, and the graphical desktop metaphor. It actually feels like something Captain Picard would use.

Or, at least, that's how the theory goes.

Stretching the envelope

For the tablet revolution to happen, however, the iPhone interface will need to stretch in a few new directions. Perhaps the most important and difficult user interface problem is the keyboard. Quite simply, how will we type on the thing? It's not as easy as making the iPhone keyboard bigger. You can read our analysis of the potential solutions here. The other issues involved are:

• How would Apple and the app developers deal with the increased resolution?
• How would Apple deal with multitasking that, in theory, would be easier with the increased power of a tablet?
• Where would Apple place the home button?

The resolution dilemma

The first question has an easy answer from a marketing and development perspective.

At the marketing level, it would be illogical to waste the power that the sheer number of iPhone/iPod Touch applications give to this platform. Does this mean that the Apple Tablet would run the same applications as the iPhone, just bigger, at full screen?

This is certainly a possibility if the application doesn't contain a version of its user interface specifically tailored for the increased screen real state. It's also the easiest one to implement. The other possibility is that, in the case the application is not ready for the extra pixel space, it may run alongside other applications running at 320 x 240 pixels.

Here is a totally made-up example of home-screen icons and apps running on a tablet at full screen:

However, this would complicate the user interface way too much. My logical guess is that, if the app interface is not Tablet-ready, it would run at full screen. That's the cheapest option for everyone, and it may not even be needed in most cases: If the rumors are true, there will be a gap between the announcement of the device and the actual release. This makes sense, as it will give developers time to scramble to get their apps ready for the new resolution.

Most developers will like to take advantage of the extra pixels that the screen offers, with user interfaces that put more information in one place. But the most important thing is that the JesusTablet-tailored apps represent an opportunity to increase their sales.

From a development point of view, this represents an easily solvable challenge. Are there going to be two applications, one for the iPhone/iPod touch, and another one for the tablet? Most likely, no. If Apple follows the logic of their Mac OS X's resolution-independent application guidelines—issued during the World Wide Developers Conference in June—the most reasonable option could be to pack the two user interfaces and associated art into a single fat application.

How to multitask

Most rumors are pointing at the possibility of multitasking in the tablet (and also on the iPhone OS 4.0). This will bring up the challenge of navigation through running apps that take all over the screen. Palm's Web OS solves this elegantly, but Apple has two good options in their arsenal, all present in Mac OS X.

The app switch bar or a dock
They can implement a simple dock that is always present on the screen or is invoked using a gesture or clicking a button or on a screen icon. This is the simplest available method, and can also be made to be flashy and all eye candy.

Exposé
This is one of those features that people love in Mac OS X, but that only a few discover on their own. Once you get it, you can't live without it. I can imagine a tablet-based Exposé as an application switcher. Make a gesture or click on a corner, and get all running applications to neatly appear in a mosaic, just like Mac OS X does except that they won't have multiple windows. The apps could be updated live, ready to be expanded when you touch one of them. Plenty of opportunity for sci-fi'ish eye candy here.

A gesture makes sense for implementing Exposé on the tablet—as you can do on the MacBook Pro—but they could also use their recently-patented proximity sensing technology. In fact, I love this idea: Make the four corners of the tablet hot, making icons appear every time you get a thumb near a corner. The icons—which could be user customizable—could bring four different functions. One of them would be closing the running application. The other, call Exposé and bring up the mosaic with all running applications. The other could invoke the home screen, with all the applications. And a fourth one, perhaps, could open the general preferences. Or bring a set of Dashboard widgets that will show instant information snippets, like in Mac OS X.

Here's an illustration—again, totally hypothetical—of what this sort of Exposé interface might look like:

The trouble with the home button

The physical home button in the iPhone and the touch plays a fundamental role, and it's one of the key parts of the interface. Simply put, without it, you can't exit applications and return to the home screen. On the small iPhone, it makes sense to have it where it is. On this larger format—check its size compared to the iPhone here—things are not so clear.

Would you have a single home button? If yes, would you place it on a corner, where it could be easily pressed by one of your thumbs, as you hold the tablet? On what corner? If you add two home buttons, for easier access, wouldn't that confuse consumers? Or not? And wouldn't placing a button affect the perception of the tablet as an horizontal or vertical device? This, for me, is one of the biggest—and silliest—mysteries of the tablet.

What about if Apple decides not to use a physical button? Like I point out in the idea about Exposé, the physical button could be easily replaced by a user definable hot corner.

Revolution Part Two

With these four key problems solved, whatever extra Apple adds—like extra gestures—is just icing on the iPhone user interface cake that so many consumers find so delicious. The important thing here is that the fabled Apple Tablet won't revolutionize the computing world on its own. It may become what the Mac was to the command-line computers, but the revolution already started with the iPhone.

If Apple has interpreted its indisputable success as an indication about what consumers want for the next computing era, the new device will be more of the same, but better and more capable.

Maybe Apple ignored this experience, and they have created a magical, wondrous, an unproven, completely new interface that nobody can imagine now. You know, the one that will bring universal love, world peace and pancakes for everyone. I'm all for pancakes.

Or perhaps Steve Jobs went nuts, and he decided to emulate el Sr. Gates with a desktop operating system.

The most logical step, however, is to follow the iPhone and the direction set by Raskin years ago. To me, the tablet will be the continuation of the end for the classic windowed environment and the desktop metaphor user interface. And good riddance, is all I can say.

Posted via email from Roger Grobler's posterous

A blog I read every day

There is currently only one blog I read every day. And every day it is worth reading. I don't know where she gets her stuff from, but it is always surprising, pleasing, amusing, inspiring and thought provoking. 

Some of the latest posts:

A milk carton that changes its color to indicate the freshness of its content.

Why don’t we buy cars this way?

Creative Vinyl Decals by Hu2

Hu2 is a London-based company comprised of four crazy dudes (and one dudette!). They have some simply awesome ideas when it comes to creative uses of vinyl. Flicking through their online catalogue, we're reminded of some of Banksy's pieces, which we really dig here at Abduzeedo.

Vinyl wall decals are often overlooked but they're a really simple and creative solution to playing up a boring wall. Why not try trading in the paint and wallpaper and get your hand on some of these fun decals. They can be used on any smooth flat surface and are completely removable, leaving no mark or residue behind. Take a look at the collection we gathered for you here today and get inspired to do something fun with your walls.

1 of 6

Posted via email from Roger Grobler's posterous

Thursday, December 31, 2009

The biggest Ponzi scheme of them all?

One of the most worrying things in the economic world is the US debt level. Charlie Munger said at the Berkshire Hathaway AGM earlier this year: "One thing is certain, the US dollar will buy a lot less in 20 years time than it does today."

The premise is simple. The US has more debt than it can repay without destroying the value of the US dollar. So the biggest losers will not only be the American people, but also the people who own the debt (China is a major owner of US debt), and everyone who benefits from US spending. If the US dollar is worth significantly less, it will buy significantly less. The US debt is now being referred to as a giant Ponzi scheme. The biggest one of them all. Not good. 

The article below is incredibly interesting and alarming. 

Who's buying all that US debt?

Eric Sprott & David Franklin

In a recent note to clients, we discussed how much debt the US government would need to issue in order to balance the budget for fiscal 2009. We calculated they would need to sell $2.041 trillion in new debt – or almost three times the new debt that was issued in fiscal 2008.

As a thought experiment, we separated all the various US Treasury owners and asked our readers whether each group could afford to increase their 2009 treasury purchases by 200 per cent. In the end, we surmised that most groups couldn’t, and prepared our readers for the worst. Almost seven months later, however, nothing particularly bad has happened on the US debt front.

There have been no failed auctions, no sovereign defaults, no downgrades of debt and no significant increase in rates: not so much as a hiccup in the treasury market. Knowing what we discussed this past June, we have to ask how it all went so smoothly. After all, it was pretty obvious that there wasn’t enough buying power to satisfy the auctions under ‘normal’ circumstances.

In the latest Treasury Bulletin (published in December 2009), ownership data reveals that the United States increased the public debt by $1.885 trillion dollars in fiscal 2009. So who bought all the new Treasury securities to finance the massive increase in expenditures? According to the same report, there were three distinct groups that bought more than they did in 2008. The first was “Foreign and International Buyers”, who purchased $697.5 billion worth of Treasury securities in fiscal 2009 – representing about 23 per cent more than their respective purchases in fiscal 2008. The second group was the Federal Reserve itself. According to its published balance sheet, it increased its treasury holdings by $286 billion in 2009, representing a 60 per cent increase year-over-year. This increase appears to be a direct result of the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing program announced this past March. Most of the other identified buyers in the Treasury Bulletin were either net sellers or small buyers in 2009.

While the Q4 data is not yet available, the Q1, Q2 and Q3 data suggests that the state and local governments and US savings bonds groups will be net sellers of US Treasury securities in 2009, while pension funds, insurance companies and depository institutions only increased their purchases by a negligible amount.

So who was the third large buyer? Drum roll please... it was “Other Investors”. After purchasing $90 billion in 2008, this group has purchased $510.1 billion of freshly minted treasury securities so far in the first three quarters of fiscal 2009. If you annualise this rate of purchase, they are on pace to buy $680 billion of US treasuries this year – or more than seven times what they purchased in 2008.

This is undoubtedly the group that made the US deficit possible this year. But who are they? The Treasury Bulletin identifies “Other Investors” as consisting of individuals, government-sponsored enterprises (GSE), brokers and dealers, bank personal trusts and estates, corporate and non-corporate businesses, individuals and other investors. Hmmm. Do you think anyone in that group had almost $700 billion to invest in the US Treasury market in fiscal 2009? We didn’t either.

To dig further, we turned to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Flow of Funds Data, which provides a detailed breakdown of the owners of Treasury Securities to Q3 2009. Within this grouping, the GSE’s were small buyers of a mere $5 billion this year; broker and dealers were sellers of almost $80 billion; commercial banking were buyers of approximately $80 billion; corporate and non-corporate businesses, grouped together, were buyers of $11.6 billion, for a grand net purchase of $16.6 billion. So who really picked up the tab?

To our surprise, the only group to actually substantially increase their purchases in 2009 is defined in the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Report as the “Household Sector”. This category of buyers bought $15 billion worth of treasuries in 2008, but by Q3 2009 had purchased a whopping $528.7 billion worth. At the end of Q3 this household sector category now owns more treasuries than the Federal Reserve itself.

So to summarise, the majority buyers of Treasury securities in 2009 were:

1. Foreign and international buyers, who purchased $697.5 billion.
2. The Federal Reserve, which bought $286 billion.
3. The household sector, which bought $528 billion to Q3 – which puts them on track purchase $704 billion for fiscal 2009.

These three buying groups represent the lion’s share of the $1.885 trillion of debt that was issued by the US in fiscal 2009.

We must admit that we were surprised to discover that “households” had bought so many Treasuries in 2009. They bought 35 times more government debt than they did in 2008. Given the financial condition of the average household in 2009, this makes little sense to us. With unemployment and foreclosures skyrocketing, who could afford to increase treasury investments to such a large degree?

For our more discerning readers, this enormous “household” investment was made outside of money market funds, mutual funds, ETF’s, life insurance companies, pension and retirement funds and closed-end funds, which are all separate reporting categories. This leaves a very important question: who makes up this household sector?

Amazingly, we discovered that the Household Sector is actually just a catch-all category. It represents the buyers left over who can’t be slotted into the other group headings. For most categories of financial assets and liabilities, the values for the household sector are calculated as residuals. That is, amounts held or owed by the other sectors are subtracted from known totals, and the remainders are assumed to be the amounts held or owed by the household sector.

To quote directly from the Flow of Funds Guide, “For example, the amounts of Treasury securities held by all other sectors, obtained from asset data reported by the companies or institutions themselves, are subtracted from total Treasury securities outstanding, obtained from the Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government and the balance is assigned to the household sector(emphasis ours)".

So to answer the question – who is the household sector? They are a PHANTOM. They don’t exist. They merely serve to balance the ledger in the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report.

Our concern now is that this is all starting to resemble one giant ponzi scheme. We all know that the Fed has been active in the market for T-bills. As you can see from the table below, under the auspices of Quantitative Easing, they bought almost 50 per cent of the new Treasury issues in Q2 and almost 30 per cent in Q3. It serves to remember that the whole point of selling new US Treasury bonds is to attract outside capital to finance deficits or to pay off existing debts that are maturing. We are now in a situation, however, where the Fed is printing dollars to buy treasuries as a means of faking the Treasury’s ability to attract outside capital. If our research proves anything, it’s that the regular buyers of US debt are no longer buying, and it amazes us that the US can successfully issue a record number of Treasuries in this environment without the slightest hiccup in the market.



click the image to enlarge


Bill Gross is co-chief investment officer at PIMCO and arguably one of the world’s most powerful bond investors. He recently revealed that his bond fund has cut holdings of US government debt and boosted cash to the highest levels since 2008. Earlier this year he referred to the US as a “ponzi style economy” and recommended that investors front run Uncle Sam and other world governments into government debt instruments of all forms. The fact that he is now selling US treasuries is a foreboding sign.

Foreign holders are also expressing concern over new Treasury purchases. In a recent discussion on the global role of the US dollar, Zhu Min, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, told an academic audience that “the world does not have so much money to buy more US Treasuries.” He went on to say, “the United States cannot force foreign governments to increase their holdings of Treasuries… Double the holdings? It is definitely impossible".

Judging from these statements, it seems clear that the US cannot expect foreigners to continue to support their debt growth in this new economic environment. As US consumers buy fewer foreign goods, there are less US dollars available for foreigners to purchase future Treasury securities. Foreigners are the largest source of external capital that can be clearly identified in US Treasury data. If their support wanes in 2010, the US will require significant domestic support to fund future debt issuances. Gross’s recent comments suggest that their domestic support may already be weakening.

As we have seen so illustriously over the past year, all ponzi schemes eventually fail under their own weight. The US debt scheme is no different. 2009 has been witness to spectacular government intervention in almost all levels of the economy. This support requires outside capital to facilitate, and relies heavily on the US government’s ability to raise money in the debt market. The fact that the Federal Reserve and US Treasury cannot identify the second largest buyer of treasury securities this year proves that the traditional buyers are not keeping pace with the US government’s deficit spending. It makes us wonder if it’s all just a ponzi scheme.


This is an edited version of an article originally published by Sprott Asset Management LP. The full text is available here.

Posted via email from Roger Grobler's posterous

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

What the Google Web will look like in 10 years

With the release of Google Public DNS, it appears that Google is making good on their earlier call to action for making the Web faster. In conjunction with that announcement several months ago, they launched the “Speed” site at Google Code with the headline “Let’s make the Web faster.” After setting up their DNS servers, which replaces the DNS servers from my ISP, I can confirm that my web browsing is indeed much zippier than before. So much so that it’s sort of shocking that ISP’s don’t seem to do much DNS optimization on their own – then again, why would they?

At first, this got me thinking about the self-serving aspects of Google Public DNS, in addition to Google’s other speed initiatives – which include Chrome, Chrome OS, and the announcement of the SPDY protocol. After all, these initiatives are aimed at more than just purely altruistic ends, they’re helping to make the Web a better platform for Google products. I quickly learned that we had already covered that material here on Pingdom’s blog, but the thought kept gnawing at me.

I decided at that point to take things a bit further. Of course Google wants to make the Web faster and more stable, but what will it all mean for the technology giant down the line? And how will their current projects evolve to take advantage of a better performing Web?

Looking ahead five years from now may not allow us to see the full extent of Google’s ambition, so I’ve decided to make a bit of a gamble. Based on the many chess pieces they’ve laid down since the launch of Gmail in 2004, along with a general sense of where today’s technology is headed, let’s jump forward ten years and imagine how things could end up for Google*.

*Assuming that we’re all still around after the Mayan calendar ends in 2012, Skynet remains fiction, and somehow the Large Hadron Collider doesn’t doom us all.

Google’s focus on speed will help bring us to a faster, lag-free Internet sooner

It probably won’t blow any minds to say that the Web will be significantly faster ten years from now. I’m not going to try and argue that Google Public DNS and the SPDY protocol will directly lead to a faster Internet, but Google’s increased focus on speed surely won’t be entirely in vain. Internet access speeds and infrastructure will naturally improve over time, but Google’s DNS service and Chrome browser are also making significantly faster speeds a reality today, and bringing to light the many inefficiencies we currently face on the Internet.

Chrome’s release made browser developers focus more heavily on Javascript performance, and also turned it into a hot topic among power users. Basically, it forced the competition to actually compete, and now improved Javascript performance figures are almost a requirement for developers to tout with every new browser version.

This is a pattern we’ll see repeated several times throughout this piece. It honestly doesn’t matter if Chrome becomes the top browser on the Web, or if its growth remains stagnant. Google made everyone step up their Javascript crunching game – and since that will make their apps faster across all browsers, Google wins no matter what.

Similarly, Google DNS has made more people aware of the issues with DNS resolution when left to ISPs, who haven’t really made DNS optimization a priority. Google DNS makes web browsing faster and safer, the only problem is that the process of changing DNS servers can be a little troublesome for general users (and of course, it introduces some new privacy concerns). The mere existence of Google Public DNS will make people aware of other DNS alternatives, like Open DNS, and ISPs may eventually be able to offer Google’s DNS optimizations on their own servers as an option to customers.

The Internet will be powerful enough to handle today’s offline applications

Many Internet users are already moving away from desktop applications and over to web applications, often without even realizing it. Few webmail users go through the trouble of configuring desktop client access anymore (unless they’re business users that really need Outlook), and I’ve seen many users make far more use of Google Docs than Microsoft Office in the past few years. You can even do some rudimentary audio and video editing using Aviary’s apps.

Ten years from now, we’ll be seeing even more powerful applications residing on the Web, and desktop apps will most likely be relegated to high-end media production and PC gaming. In addition to increased Internet speeds, we can attribute the future rise of better web apps to more robust web standards and plugins.

We’re already taking steps toward that today. Google recently announced that they’ll be moving away from Gears – their technology which allows for offline support, geolocation, and other robust desktop-like features for web applications – and will instead look toward the HTML 5 specification in the future since it supports many similar features.

It should be no surprise that HTML 5 mimics Gears so closely. In 2004, the specification was proposed by the Web Hypertext Application Technology Working Group, and one of the founding members, Ian Hickson, is also a web standards proponent who has been working for Google since 2005. The group also includes individuals from Mozilla and Apple. Before it was called HTML 5, they referred to their specification proposal as “Web Applications 1.0″. With features like built-in media playback, drag and drop support, and offline storage, it’s clear that HTML 5 is still being built with web applications in mind.

Gears was another example of Google pushing the Web in a direction that they wanted. Now, along with Mozilla and Apple, they’ll be helping to shape the very standards the Web is based on with HTML 5.

In ten years, we’ll likely be looking at HTML 6 or 7, and even more powerful plugins from the likes of Adobe and Microsoft. HTML 5 is making strides towards reducing our dependence on third-party plugins, but I don’t think their respective companies will allow Flash or Silverlight to die off too easily.

Internet access will be ubiquitous, free to many, and Google will help make it happen

Now here’s where things become a little more speculative. We’ve already established that a faster and more powerful Web will ultimately be good for Google, and that they’re trying to jump-start innovation when it comes to making that a reality. But what of actual access to the Web? I predict that over the next decade, Google will see a great deal of value in helping to make Internet access more widespread, dirt cheap, and possibly even free. Decently fast web access could very well be ubiquitous in first-world countries.

If a faster and more powerful Web is good for Google, then surely getting more eyes on the Web is in their best interest as well. Broadband adoption will undoubtedly increase on its own over the next decade, but Google could help by figuring out ways to bring Internet access for free to emerging markets like Africa and South America, and low-income users in cities. They could also help to push legislation that would make cheap nationwide broadband a reality in America.

Wave will be an integral part of collaborative communication on the Web

Currently, Google Wave is suffering from confusion and dismissal by many users, which is very similar to what Twitter faced a few years ago (and is still facing today). It’s something that occurs every time a new technology appears and the public doesn’t quite know what to make of it. Sometimes the technology just disappears into oblivion, but once in a while it ends up changing the way we live.

Having used Google Wave in several capacities, from planning podcast episodes, to brain storming this very article, I can understand the confusion. On the face of it, the service is just a glorified chat client with an email interface. Dig a little deeper though, and the true face of Wave quickly makes itself clear.

Real-time updating, threaded conversations, and the ability to play back updates all end up making Google Wave the best collaborative resource on the Web. It’s better than Google Docs for simultaneous collaboration because of the real-time updates (instead of the “whenever it feels like it” updating of Docs), and the threaded conversation allow for some order amidst the collaborative chaos. And to make even further sense of how the conversation evolved, the ability to play back edits is immensely useful.

Many have seemed to forget this, but when it was first announced, Google intended for anyone to be able to deploy their own Wave server. It’s a protocol, like any other, and individually deployed Wave servers will be able to interact with the greater community.

What does this mean in ten years? For one, we’ll quickly see Wave implemented across the board on Google’s services. Businesses and other organizations will adopt it for in-group collaboration. I’d even wager as far to say that anyone who has an email account will have access to Wave. Wave’s real-time updating features will also see widespread use among mobile devices.

Android will have won the mobile platform wars

Yeah, I said it. Apple’s current lead in the smartphone space won’t last for long once Android finally gathers some steam. Android’s victory will be in sheer number of devices, as well as the ability to hit price points that Apple would never dare. Top-end Android phones will continue to compete with Apple’s iPhone successors, but Android will take Nokia’s place in ruling the dirt-cheap and free phone segment.

Not everyone needs a fancy smartphone with a huge screen and a fast processor, and the low-end Android phones will cater to that market. Of course, in a decade even the low-end phones will probably blow us away, but I think we’ll begin seeing cheap Android phones within the next few years. Then there’s also the speculation about the data-only VOIP Google phone, which could radically change the landscape for phone service.

In the end, having the fastest hardware, and the most apps in their online store (although that won’t last for long either), won’t be enough to keep Apple on top. That is, unless they come up with a radically cheap phone of their own. The fact that Android is free, customizable for handset makers, and deployable on a wide variety of mobile hardware, makes its mobile takeover more than just speculation. It’s inevitable.

Google Search will be able to find anything instantly – a harbinger of the Technological Singularity?

Short of reading minds, there will be nothing that touches the Web left that Google’s search engine can’t tackle. Just today they announced how they’re integrating real-time search results, using their secret sauce relevancy engine. Google Fellow Amit Singhal’s also mentioned the following, which seems especially prescient for this article, “Light can travel around the world in 1/10th of a second, and we won’t rest until the speed of light is the only barrier to getting good search results to you.”

While I’m not sure the laws of physics will ever allow that to be possible (unless everything between you and Google was pure fiber optic cabling), it’s nice to see that they’re always looking for that next milestone.

Relevancy will become increasingly important to Google as they have more and more information to deal with. Their problem won’t be gathering all the data, it’ll be making sense of it. It looks like they’ve already gotten a handle on how to implement Twitter, Facebook, and the like – it’ll be interesting to see how they tackle the rest of the upcoming deluge.

The increasing powers of Google Search will also be of great interest to Sci-Fi fans like myself a decade from now. Futurist types like Bill Joy and Ray Kurzweil have long predicted a point where artificial intelligence becomes self-improving, at which point they will quickly surpass human intelligence. Who knows what sort of tricks Google will employ down the line to stay ahead in the search engine game, but be wary if your search queries ever start seeming too smart.

But of course, the moment you realize that Google Search has become sentient, it’s already too late. ;)

Wrapping up

While the past decade has in many ways been ruled by Apple and their many instances of redefining the technological landscape, I predict that the next ten years will be Google’s reign. They’re now more than a young search engine startup. Google is a technological powerhouse that’s reshaping the Internet, the way we use it, and our overall relationship with technology.

Special thanks to my friends Carl Angiolillo and Dwayne De Freitas for their help with brainstorming this article.

Photo credit: Cheetah by Jason Bechtel.

About the author:
Devindra Hardawar is a tech/film blogger and podcast host. You can find him writing at the Far Side of Tech and Slashfilm.

What will Google look like in 10 years? Great question indeed. Devindra Hardawar has a go at answering the question.

Posted via web from Roger Grobler's posterous

SEO, 1999(?) - 2010. RIP

Warren Buffet says that if you combine a business or industry with a poor reputation, and a management team with a good reputation, it is invariably the business' reputation that remains standing.
Chilling thought indeed for any good management team, and a good reason to very clearly think about your business model very often. Do you have a good business model? 
There are many business models that are questionable. One of them in particular is SEO. How to fool Google. If Google succeeds, then SEO's business model is stuffed. So if SEO simply optimises a website for organic search results, and disregards the actual relevance of the contents, then in the long term it will be doomed, as I am pretty sure Google will succeed. Below a blog posting by Robert Scoble on the same topic.
16/12/09 6:32 PM
 Robert Scoble Web

The writing is on the wall. Small business marketing is moving away from focusing on SEO. Why do I say that? Because, well, Google and Bing are changing the rules so often and are getting so good at figuring out the real businesses that deserve to be on pages. Search Half Moon Bay Sushi and you get real answers from sites that didn’t focus on SEO. Yeah, there are exceptions, but they are increasingly getting rare.

With other searches, like one for Tiger Woods, you’ll get a page filled with stuff that SEO just doesn’t affect much anymore. In the middle of that page is a real time box that brings items from Twitter and Google News. It no longer is good enough to be just an SEO expert to get items onto pages like these. You’ve gotta be great at creating content that gets Google’s algorithms to trust it enough to shove it onto these new hybrid pages.

But there’s something deeper going on. Google has built systems that aren’t Page Rank controlled anymore and are giving far better analytics to small businesses than they did a year ago. They know a LOT more about your behavior now other than you clicked on a link, even to the extent that they know whether you called that business or bought something and THAT is changing the skills SEO/SEM types need to have.

No longer is it about optimizing search engine results and the new breed is going beyond just search engines to provide holistic systems that find and track customers not only on search engines like Google and Bing, but on social networks like Facebook and Twitter.

Yesterday I sat down with two of the guys behind a new company, coming in January, called “MyNextCustomer,” who already is working with about 50 small businesses and are getting much better results than more traditional “SEO/SEM only firms.”

Make no mistake, the two guys I sat down with, George Revutsky and Dustin Kittelson, who are co-founders of ROI.works, which is a search marketing firm, have been doing search engine and online marketing for a long time (since 1996 in George’s case) and they share their insights in this 30-minute conversations about what’s happening to small business online marketing.

I came away from this conversations thinking that SEO is getting dramatically less important and that SEM should be renamed to “OM” for “Online Marketing” since small businesses need to take a much more holistic approach to marketing than just worrying about search results.

Are you seeing the same trends in your business?

Posted via email from rogergrobler's posterous

Saturday, December 26, 2009

A selection of cool Mac things to get yourself just after Christmas...

I have been reading through a bunch of "best of-" lists for Mac software. One of those things you only really get time for on holiday. I'm not planning to buy all of these. I will get some of them. Some of them I would get if they were for free. It is however quite a cool list. Here you go:
(): MondoMouse is a bit difficult to explain: It lets you move and resize windows, in any program, without having to grab a thin title bar or tiny resize handle. You just move the cursor over the window you want to modify, press your chosen modifier key(s), and then move the mouse; the window moves or resizes with the cursor. (Still not clear? Check out ourMacworld Video on MondoMouse.) It may not sound impressive, but once you’ve used it, you’ll never go back to clicking and dragging windows. $15; Atomic Bird.
(): This behind-the-scenes utility provides a systemwide notification service used by many Mac programs and system add-ons. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, more and more of my favorite applications and services take adantage of Growl to provide notifications and updates—I can see when downloads and file transfers have finished, when new messages have arrived, when video conversions have completed, when my laptop’s power cable has been disconnected, and much more. An example of a great use of Growl notifications is HardwareGrowler, which informs you of hardware and network connections and disconnections. Free; Growl Developers.
My worry about Growl is slowing down my system. Any thoughts anyone?
(): It’s wrong to copy DVDs you don’t own, but there are plenty of legitimate reasons for ripping DVDs you’ve purchased. RipIt lets you rip those DVDs with a single click of the mouse; you can watch the resulting VIDEO_TS folder on your laptop using DVD Player or convert it to a format playable on your iPod, iPhone, or Apple TV. There’s no other Mac software out there that can handle as many different discs as RipIt—including the latest movies that can trip up utilities such as HandBrake and MacTheRipper. Like ClickToFlash, above, RipIt is also an Eddy winner. $20;The Little App Factory.
Planning to get this one... Had enough of little fingers destroying DVDs...

Mac mini

The first Mac minis, released back in 2005, were several things at once: credible low-price computers, supercompact, and an obvious attempt to lure Windows users over to the Mac side. Many of us became instant fans. But then Apple seemed to give up on the mini. The company released a few updates over the following two years, but the Mac mini line essentially stagnated. That led many admirers to wonder whether Apple’s smallest computer was headed for the dust bin, a cute but failed experiment.

Mac mini
Mac mini
Then in March 2009, a full 19 months since Apple had offered an update to the mini line, the company introduced its biggest Mac mini update ever (

) (Best Current Price): faster CPUs, more RAM, a new graphics chip, dual video outputs (including support for Apple’s 30-inch Cinema Display), larger hard drives, FireWire 800, more USB ports, 802.11n wireless, Bluetooth 2.1, and an 8X SuperDrive. In other words, nearly every feature of the mini was upgraded significantly, while the prices of the two models were unchanged.
And just seven months later, Apple updated the mini again (

) (Best Current Price), increasing processor speeds, adding still more RAM and (on the low-end model) switching to a larger hard drive. The mini is the forgotten Mac no more: You won’t find another name-brand computer with these specs in this small a package at these prices.
Apple didn’t just bring the Mac mini line up to speed. In October, the company also released a completely new configuration, the $999 Mac mini with Snow Leopard Server (
) (Best Current Price). It’s essentially the $799 mini with a second 500GB hard drive (it has no optical drive) and preloaded with Mac OS X Server (); that software normally costs $499 all by itself. It is a full-featured, unlimited-user server in a tiny, energy-sipping package that is ideal for small businesses, some homes, and the education market.
The past year proves that Apple does indeed care about the Mac mini and, in fact, is using it to push the compact-computer envelope. The mini isn’t for everyone; it’s the least-powerful Mac—laptop or desktop—that Apple offers. But it’s an extremely impressive machine for the size, and it's a good fit for both switchers and people on a budget. It also makes a great second Mac, and it’s an appealing option for a Mac-based media system. This year, we were glad to see that the Mac mini is still very much alive.—Dan Frakes
$599 to $999; Apple
I am a little annoyed I bought the AppleTV some time ago. Should've gotten a Mini...

MiFi 2200

At this point, Wi-Fi seems to be everywhere—in airports, cafes, hotels, and other public places where computer users collect. But there are still plenty of places where there’s nary a hotspot to be found. A few years ago, we started seeing a solution for such coldspots: 3G modems and routers, which let you get online from almost anywhere you can get a cell phone signal. That technology has been evolving; this year we saw one of the nicest developments yet: the MiFi 2200 (
).
MiFi 2200
MiFi 2200
Developed by Novatel Wireless and sold by several wireless carriers, the MiFi 2200 started popping up all over the place this year. One reason it seemed to catch on was its size: at 3.5 by 2.3 by .4 inches, it’s about as tiny as a bite-size chocolate bar, small enough to stash in your pocket.
The MiFi 2200 is also about as easy to use as a tech product can be: Press the power button on the top and it connects to your carrier’s cellular network. The SSID and password are on the bottom. You can share its access with up to five users at a time. Despite its size, the MiFi 2200 is a fully configurable Wi-Fi base station. Using its Web interface, you can give it a new SSID and password, limit access, adjust TCP/IP settings, and check on signal strength and battery life.
By making useful technology ultraportable, the MiFi 2200 became one of our favorite products of the year.—Dan Miller
$80; Verizon Wireless
This thing would be very useful to someone who needs it. I don't. Damn.

Canon Powershot SD780 IS

In the crowded point-and-shoot market, it’s hard to find a camera that’s very good at everything. But the PowerShot SD780 IS (
) (Best Current Price) is.
Canon Powershot SD780 IS
Canon Powershot SD780 IS
The 12-megapixel SD780 IS received some of the highest marks for image quality of any point-and-shoot that we reviewed in the past year. Its color accuracy and sharpness are both excellent, and it keeps the noise down in low-light and high-ISO shots. It also captures video at 720p HD resolution. At the same time, the SD780 is admirably easy to use, with intuitive, easy-to-navigate menus, and a nice 2.5-inch LCD. The camera’s optical viewfinder—a rarity in point-and-shoot cameras these days—makes it easier to frame shots in bright sunlight. And the camera is still small enough to carry with you everywhere.
Combine those features and that ease of use, and you've got our favorite point-and-shoot of the year.—Roman Loyola
$250; Canon USA
Too cool for school!

Iomega Home Media Network Hard Drive

Iomega Home Media Network Hard Drive
Iomega Home Media Network Hard Drive
Many vendors offer networked home media servers. But only one of those products earned an Eddy this year: The Iomega Home Media Network Hard Drive (
) (Best Current Price). It did so by taking the best features of its competitors and packaging them in a single, easy-to-use device..
Like other media servers, the Iomega Home Media drive stores your music, videos, and photos in one place, where they’re accessible from any Mac or PC on your network. It has its own iTunes server, remote access capabilities, and support for Time Machine and BitTorrent.
Unlike some of its competitors, the Iomega Home Media drive is easy to set up and manage. It’s that last bit that makes it one of our favorite products of the year.—Chris Holt
$150 to $350; Iomega

Interesting alternative to Time Capsule for media backup.

Flip MinoHD

Flip MinoHD
Flip MinoHD
In 2009, it seemed you couldn’t turn around without tripping over a new HD pocket camcorder. Kodak, Creative, Sanyo, and others all released some of these miniature moviemakers. But Pure Digital (now a part of Cisco) really defined the category, repeatedly releasing ever more capable models. Our favorite: the $230 Flip MinoHD () (Best Current Price).
While most pocket camcorders are studies in compromise, the MinoHD offers a great blend of features and performance. It’s easy to operate and solidly built, includes a bright 2-inch display, shoots up to two hours of 720p high-definition video, and includes an HDMI video port. It shoots well in low light and gets colors and tone right under most shooting conditions. Like the other Flips, the MinoHD includes the FlipShare software, which lets you jack the MinoHD into a powered USB 2.0 port, extract video, perform basic edits, and upload the results to your favorite video-sharing service.
In a crowded field, the Flip MinoHD clearly stands out.—Christopher Breen
$200 to $230; Flip Video
I want one...

Bamboo Fun

Tablets aren’t for everyone. But whether you’re a digital artist or just a regular user who’d like to use a pen instead of (or in conjunction with) a mouse, you should take a look at Wacom’sBamboo Fun tablet (
) (Best Current Price).
The Fun can serve as a giant multitouch touchpad: Press one finger to the tablet to move the cursor; press two to perform gestures. Its pen is unbeatable for graphics work. It offers 1,024 levels of pressure sensitivity—invaluable for creating subtle effects in apps that support pressure sensitivity.
Put simply, the Bamboo Fun is one of the most innovative input devices we’ve come across in a while; it may be the nicest graphics tablet we’ve ever seen.—Jackie Dove
$199; Wacom
I have one. Not getting much use out of it though. One gripe: Touch area splits over both screens on a two monitor display. 
Jason Snell put it best: “If I could have only one Mac utility, a solitary piece of software that I could use to improve using my Mac and all its programs as I went about my daily business, it would be Objective Development’s LaunchBar. When I use a Mac that doesn’t have LaunchBar running, I simply feel naked.”
Downloading this as we speak...
Among this add-on’s many features, the one I use the most is the capability to quickly restore windows to particular sizes and positions. For example, by pressing Mercury Mover’s keyboard shortcut followed by S, my Safari window is instantly placed in my favorite location with my favorite dimensions.
Planning to check this one out...

Bento 3


Bento 3
Bento 3
When FileMaker introduced Bento in 2008, the personal database application had just about everything a casual user could want for organizing data, from pre-assembled templates to dynamic access to Address Book, iCal, and Mail data. About the only flaw—and it was a doozy—involved Bento’s pricing: users who bought the original Bento 1 had to pay the full $49 price tag to upgrade to Bento 2. FileMaker took a lot of heat for that decision, but to its credit, the company listened to the critics. When Bento 3 () debuted this past fall, FileMaker offered a $20 rebate to all existing users.
But there’s more to this latest version than a reasonable upgrade policy. Bento 3 added iPhoto integration and the ability to share data with others on your local network—both welcome additions. With the addition to 128-bit AES encryption to secure that data, Bento continues to set the standard for personal database programs.—Philip Michaels
$49; FileMaker
Anyone using this? Looks cool enough to try...

Dropbox

These days, we all have files all over the place—our computers at work and home, desktops and laptops, Macs and PCs, and even iPhones. Keeping track of which files you’ve stored where and making sure you have the files you need when you need them can be a hassle. Dropboxsolves this problem by giving you access to files no matter where you are or what device you’re using.
Once you install the free Dropbox app on your Macs and PCs, you throw the files you want access to into your Dropbox folder. They’re then automatically synced to other machines on which you’ve installed the app; it’s also stored on Dropbox’s remote servers. So even if you’re on a friend’s computer, you can still log in to the Dropbox Website and get your files that way. The free Dropbox iPhone app gives you direct access from your phone.
Dropbox does more than sync files. It also keeps track of changed documents, so if you need an older version of a file from the last 30 days, you can get to it. Or, if you want to share a file with others, you can drop it in the Public folder; Control-click (or right click) on the file in the Finder, and you can copy a download URL for pasting in e-mail, Twitter, or Facebook. Dropbox also supports easy photo galleries: Just drop photos into the Photos folder.
In addition to all that, Dropbox is free to try. The trial account gives you 2GB of storage. Beyond that, it’s $10 a month for a 50GB account, $20 a month for 100GB. It’s one of those services that, once you use it, you wonder how you did without it.—Jason Snell
free to $20 per month; Dropbox

PDFPen 4.5

When it comes to modifying PDFs, SmileOnMyMac’s PDFPen 4.5 (
) fits neatly between OS X’s free Preview and Adobe’s $449 Acrobat Pro (). At only $50, it goes well beyond Preview’s PDF processing power, yet it offers some of the same features you’ll find in the much more costly Acrobat Pro.
It enables you to insert images, text boxes, comments, and links to other pages in the same document. You can also remove the background color from imported imported images (great for inserting your signature into documents), edit text, and draw almost any shape. PDFPen 4.5.2 adds an improved OCR engine, better scanner support in Mac OS X 10.6, and multicolored highlighting.

PDFPen may not be the most exciting product among this year’s Eddys, but it’s certainly one of the most useful.—Rob Griffiths
$50; SmileOnMyMac

Maybe this will allow me to use the Bamboo Tablet more...

Things 1.0.4
Everyone has things they need to get done. So the fact that there are scores of to-do-list programs for the Mac should come as no surprise. Some of these programs are simple but limited; others are very powerful but require hours of study just to get started. Of all the task-management programs we’ve seen, Things 1.0.4 () strikes the best balance between power and usability.

Things lets you define multiple to-do lists (which it calls projects). These lists can contain one-off, repeating, and scheduled tasks; the Projects view graphically displays your progress on each. There’s also a general inbox for uncategorized tasks, along with a unique Today view that includes items you’ve manually marked for completion today, as well as Project items that are due today. You can attach notes, links, and tags to individual tasks, and then search for that data; you can filter any view by tag, schedule, or both. The nice thing is that if you don’t want to use these features, you don’t have to. Things also has an excellent iPhone counterpart, the $10 Things app, which syncs with the Mac version.

Of course, everyone has specific needs and preferences that will steer them toward a particular to-do-list program or another. But Things’ combination of ease of use, great interface, and flexibility make it as close to the ideal Mac to-do app as we’ve seen.—Dan Frakes
$50; Cultured Code

I'm already using OmniFocus on all my computers plus iPhone. Great in concept and design. So-so in execution. Particularly the syncing is a bit finicky.


Original sources here:
http://www.macworld.com/article/145043/2009/12/gemsoftheyear.html#jump
http://www.macworld.com/article/144154/2009/11/gemsthanks.html
http://www.macworld.com/article/144949/2009/12/editorschoice2009.html