At last week’s National General Council meeting Julius Malema continued to bellow about the nationalization of the mines.
President Zuma and Trevor Manuel - with a weather eye on international credit ratings - continued to resist such initiatives.
● we have consistently confounded the pessimists;
● despite the dire predictions that accompanied our transition to majority rule, we are still a non-racial constitutional democracy and still have a vibrant free market economy; and
What are our strengths and weaknesses?
● We are a constitutional democracy with an effective Bill of Rights; independent courts and a media that is still free – despite current threats;
● Generally sound macro-economic management has assured seventeen years of uninterrupted economic growth - until the global economic downturn.
● Our public debt is less than 36% of GDP - and external debt is only 16% of GDP.
● Our natural resources are legendary - including gold and diamonds, platinum group metals and abundant and inexpensive coal.
● Nevertheless, tourism now contributes 8.3% of GDP - considerably more than mining. We have superb game parks, mountains and beach resorts. Cape Town is one of the world’s premier destinations with great facilities including three of the world’s top 100 restaurants.
● Automobile production now contributes almost as much to GDP as mining. In 2008 we produced 600 000 vehicles of which 170 000 were exported.
● We have made virtually no progress with the elimination of inequality since 1994.
● Linked to inequality is poverty. 42% of our population lives on less than two dollars a day. Almost 15 million South Africans subsist on children’s, old-age and disability allowances.
● One of the root causes of poverty is unemployment. Between 35% and 40% of black South Africans are unemployed or have given up their search for employment. One of the main causes of unemployment is our dysfunctional labour system. According to the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Report we are in the bottom eight countries in terms of labour-employer relations; flexibility of wage determination and hiring and firing practices.
● Poverty, inequality and unemployment create an environment in which violent crime can flourish. South Africa has one of the highest murder rates in the world - and the highest rape rate. The World Economic Forum gives us very poor marks for the reliability of police services, for the prevalence of organised crime and the business cost of crime.
● The failure of our education system is inexorably intertwined with inequality, poverty, unemployment and crime. Only 22% of children who entered the school system in 1995 passed matric in 2007 and only 5.2% did so with university exemption. Only 1.5% passed maths at the higher grade. According to the Global Competitiveness report our education system is the ninth worst in the world.
● Even our weaknesses present us with opportunities. If we adopt correct approaches, we can do so much better in our efforts to create jobs; to improve our education system; to fight crime; to reduce poverty; to promote equality; and to improve government capabilities.
● The Zuma presidency presents us with special opportunities. I have found him to be pragmatic and a good listener. We should accept his invitation to dialogue.
● The growth of our vibrant multiracial middle class brings with it enormous opportunities for an expanding domestic market.
● Our special position in Africa presents superb opportunities to expand business activities in the continent. Many South African companies are already deriving huge success from these opportunities.
● We are well-placed to serve as a bridge between Africa and the West, and between the developed and developing worlds. We also have the opportunity of setting an example for harmonious relations in complex multicultural societies.
● Our natural beauty; our rich variety of animals and plants and our cultural diversity create enormous opportunities for the expansion of tourism.
○ Ideologies - like the National Democratic Revolution and the SACP’s mid-term vision of worker hegemony - are irreconcilable with the Constitution and with everything that mankind has learned during the past fifty years.
● We must guard against racial polarization spurred on by right-wing extremists or radical African nationalists. We must not allow the Julius Malemas and the right-wing rumour-mongers to jeopardise growing inter-racial harmony.
● Corruption can become a cancer in our economy and in our society. Our ranking in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index has slid inexorably from 23rd position in 1996 to 54th place 2008. Mind you, in 2008 we were still one place ahead of Italy and three places ahead of Greece.
● Despite greatly improved access to anti-retrovirals, AIDS continues to kill five thousand people every week.
● The current moves to curb access to public information and to regulate the press through a Media Appeals Tribunal are serious threats to our democracy. Despite assurances to the contrary, they are motivated by a wish to limit media reporting on maladministration and corruption on the one hand; and by the view that the media’s proper role is to support the developmental state and the national democratic revolution.
● We must resist any further attempts to undermine the independence of key state institutions. The appointment of Menzi SImelane as National Director of Public Prosecutions was a major concern - as was the abolition last year of the Scorpions. We must jealously defend the independence of the courts.
● We are also threatened by the loss of skills. Since 1990 between 750 000 and a million South Africans have emigrated.
○ they should make use of it to claim their rights and to defend the rights of others.
○ they should actively support the political party of their choice and work to expand our multiparty democracy;
● They should use our free media to promote constitutional values and economic freedoms. They can win on the battlefield of ideas because their arguments are so much stronger than those of their opponents.
● They should resolutely oppose any threats to the Constitution – such as the current assault on the media.
● They are not alone. Those who support constitutional governance and free markets are part of an emerging global consensus.
● They should use their considerable economic resources to support political parties and NGOs that are also dedicated to the preservation of the moderate centre.
● They should engage government in rigorous debate over the dangerous foundations of many of its current policies.
I do not believe that the ANC will be successful with its current assault on the media. The Protection of Information Bill will be withdrawn or satisfactorily amended; and the Media Appeals Tribunal will be shelved or recast in a form that will be constitutionally acceptable.
The current proposals relating to land tenure will wither in the light of national and international economic scrutiny. Our farmers, together with government, will hammer out a workable approach to land reform.
Including our ability to compete with the best in the world;
Including the world-class infrastructure that was created for the event; and
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